INDEPENDENT GEOECONOMIC RESEARCH
Research on how geopolitical disruption reaches U.S. supply chains, critical industries, and financial markets.
Open-source geoeconomic decision support for public-sector and institutional decision-makers.
Benjamin Capital Research is an independent research firm. The work is evidence-driven geoeconomic analysis built from primary data and explicit, falsifiable frameworks: every judgment runs from event to mechanism to consequence to observable indicators, and carries the condition that would prove it wrong.
FEATURED RESEARCH
The Chokepoint Consequence Monitor
A quarterly report series on what happens after a critical-mineral chokepoint closes: which downstream costs move, which lead times stretch, how wide the substitution window really is, and what the policy response is likely to be. Initial coverage hypothesis: rare-earth separation and permanent magnets. Pre-launch, being validated with early readers.
How the research works
01
A transmission chain behind every claim
Event, then mechanism, then downstream consequence, then indicators, then the condition that would invalidate the read. Judgments are written so a reader can disagree at a specific link rather than in general.
02
Calls graded in public
Research calls are registered with dates and resolution windows before the outcome is known, then graded when they resolve. Wrong calls stay published at the same level of detail as right ones.
03
A daily primary-data pipeline
An automated pipeline pulls 290+ public macro and market series from primary sources, classifies the macro regime, and has produced 108 dated research runs since March 13, 2026.
290+
public data series
108
dated research runs since March 13, 2026
2
resolved calls graded in public, wrong ones first
Dashboard, scorecard, and monitoring figures are generated from the underlying research files and refreshed on their published schedules.
SEE THE WORK
Macro Dashboard
The live analytical engine: regime probabilities, signals, tested precedents, markets, and the calendar, refreshed nightly.
Forecast Scorecard
The graded record. Every resolved call with the wrong ones listed first, plus the claims our own models refused to support.
Global Risk Board
Systematic monitoring: trigger levels written down in advance, satellite thermal watchpoints, and event-market odds.
The method behind all three is summarized on the Methodology page.
Who runs this
BCR is built and run by a U.S. Air Force veteran with six years of experience in emergency management, including teaching CBRN preparedness and designing base attack and emergency-response exercises. That background shapes BCR's emphasis on scenario discipline, consequence analysis, and clearly defined conditions for being wrong. More on the About page.
The public research is free. Get it by email at benjamincapitalresearch.com.