Central-bank gold replacing Treasuries

The finding

Central banks are executing a structural replacement of US Treasuries with gold as their primary reserve asset, driven by post-2022 sanctions risk and accelerated by allied repatriation from US custody.

The composition figures are the spine of the argument. On data compiled by the World Gold Council and cross-referenced with IMF COFER releases, gold accounts for 24% of central bank reserves against 21% for US Treasuries, or approximately $4 trillion against $3.9 trillion. In the fourth quarter of 2015, Treasuries represented 33% of central bank reserves and gold just 9%. The crossover occurred in early 2026.

The purchasing that produced it is documented year by year: 1,082 tonnes in 2022, 1,037 tonnes in 2023, 1,045 tonnes in 2024, and 863 tonnes in 2025, against a 2010 to 2021 average of 473 tonnes a year. The World Gold Council projects approximately 850 tonnes for 2026 and attributed the 2025 moderation to central banks navigating a rapid rally in prices. Central banks bought a net 27 tonnes in February 2026, roughly in line with the 26-tonne monthly average reported in 2025.

Custody is the second leg. In January 2026 the Banque de France finalized the withdrawal of all 129 tonnes of gold held at the New York Federal Reserve, executing 26 transactions between July 2025 and January 2026 and netting a capital gain of approximately $15 billion. Germany holds roughly 1,236 tonnes at the NY Fed, approximately $103 billion and roughly 37% of its total holdings, and Italy roughly 1,061 tonnes. The Bundesbank has officially reaffirmed confidence in the Federal Reserve as a trustworthy, reliable partner, while domestic political pressure builds.

Country-level behavior runs the same direction. The People's Bank of China had been buying gold for 16 consecutive months as of February 2026, bringing official holdings to 2,309 tonnes, while China reduced Treasury holdings from approximately $1.06 trillion in 2022 to roughly $760 billion. Brazil's central bank divested $61 billion in US Treasury securities in 2025 while doubling its gold holdings. IMF COFER data shows the dollar's share of allocated foreign exchange reserves at 57.79% in the first quarter of 2025, down from 64.69% in the first quarter of 2017.

The report separates the structural trend from the crisis around it. The Iran war that began on February 28, 2026 drove the dollar to its strongest monthly gain since 2024 and pressured gold through the standard inverse correlation, and central banks continued buying through the drawdown.

The numbers that carry it

• 24% against 21%Gold and US Treasury shares of global central bank reserves, approximately $4 trillion against $3.9 trillion, against 9% and 33% respectively in 2015. As of publication, April 2026.
• 863 tonnesNet central bank gold purchases in 2025, after 1,045 tonnes in 2024 and 1,037 tonnes in 2023, against a 473-tonne average for 2010 to 2021, on World Gold Council figures.
• 129 tonnesFrench gold withdrawn from the New York Federal Reserve, completed in January 2026 across 26 transactions, netting a capital gain of approximately $15 billion.
• 2,309 tonnesPeople's Bank of China official gold holdings after 16 consecutive months of buying, as of February 2026.
• 57.79%The dollar's share of allocated foreign exchange reserves in the first quarter of 2025 on IMF COFER data, down from 64.69% in the first quarter of 2017.

What would change our mind

Central bank gold buying falling below 500 tonnes annualized for two consecutive quarters, combined with Germany or Italy formally affirming confidence in NY Fed custodianship.

Related research

• LibraryThe rare-earth chokepoint. Published June 2026.
• LibraryThe Great Reallocation: China exposure rerouted through Mexico. Published July 2026.
• LiveTrack Record. The graded record, wrong calls listed first.
• LiveDashboard. The nightly regime read and the underlying series.

Published April 2026. Figures are as of publication and are not updated on this page.