The board right now
No pre-set trigger level was crossed in this snapshot, and no thermal watchpoint reads above its baseline. Quiet readings are published exactly like loud ones.
What this board watches, and why
Three families of readings, each chosen because it sits on a specific transmission path from geopolitical disruption to U.S. markets and supply chains.
Term premium, long-bond yields, breakeven inflation, and high-yield spreads. These are where sovereign funding stress and inflation repricing show up first, and each carries a level written down in advance.
Satellite heat detections over fixed boxes: refineries, ports, and shipping chokepoints. Physical disruption to energy and freight is the fastest route from a headline to a supply chain.
Public prediction-market prices on policy, growth, and geopolitical questions. Other people's money is context for our readings, never a trigger.
Who this is for: anyone who wants to see the watch list before the news cycle finds it, with the trigger levels fixed in advance so they cannot be moved after the fact.
What changes when something fires: the underlying question gets re-examined in full, and what that review finds is published in the research, with this board staying a raw instrument panel.
This is the first public edition of this board. From the next edition, this panel will also list what changed since the prior one.
Risk sensors
Sensors triggered
Nothing triggered in this snapshot. 0 TRIGGERED
An empty list is the normal state. It is published the same way a full one would be.
Approaching, closest first
Distance is the gap between the current reading and the level written down in advance. It is arithmetic on a single snapshot, not a projection: no rate of travel is implied.
| Sensor | Direction | Reading | Trigger level | Distance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10Y Breakeven Inflation Average annual inflation the bond market is pricing over the next 10 years. | Away from the risk case | 2.2700 | below 2.20 | 0.0700 |
| 5Y Breakeven Inflation Average annual inflation the bond market is pricing over the next 5 years. | Away from the risk case | 2.2300 | below 2.10 | 0.1300 |
| 10Y Term Premium Extra yield investors demand for holding a 10 year bond instead of rolling short term paper. | Toward the risk case | 0.8376 | above 1.00 | 0.1624 |
| 10Y Term Premium Extra yield investors demand for holding a 10 year bond instead of rolling short term paper. | Toward the risk case | 0.8376 | above 1.00 | 0.1624 |
| 10Y Term Premium Extra yield investors demand for holding a 10 year bond instead of rolling short term paper. | Toward the risk case | 0.8376 | above 1.00 | 0.1624 |
| 30Y Treasury Yield Yield on the 30 year US government bond. | Toward the risk case | 5.2700 | above 5.50 | 0.2300 |
| High Yield OAS Spread Extra yield paid by sub investment grade borrowers over government bonds. Wider means more stress. | Away from the risk case | 2.8400 | below 2.50 | 0.3400 |
| 10Y Term Premium Extra yield investors demand for holding a 10 year bond instead of rolling short term paper. | Away from the risk case | 0.8376 | below 0.40 | 0.4376 |
| 10Y Breakeven Inflation Average annual inflation the bond market is pricing over the next 10 years. | Toward the risk case | 2.2700 | above 3.00 | 0.7300 |
| 30Y Treasury Yield Yield on the 30 year US government bond. | Away from the risk case | 5.2700 | below 4.25 | 1.0200 |
Scheduled watch dates
Calendar points fixed in advance, when scheduled data or a known deadline lands. Dates only.
| Date | Status |
|---|---|
| 2026-08-13 | 9 days out |
| 2026-10-08 | 65 days out |
External corroboration
External news corroboration
No corroboration counts are carried in this snapshot.
When the external news sweep returns, this panel reports how many stories and how many distinct outlets were found per monitored cluster. An empty sweep means the question could not be asked, which is not the same as the story being quiet, so the counts are published either way.
Thermal watch
Thermal watchpoints
Satellite heat detections over fixed geographic boxes: refineries, ports and shipping chokepoints. A detection is a hot pixel, not a confirmed event, and fires, flares and industrial heat all register. Counts are published raw and interpreted nowhere on this page. Source: NASA FIRMS near real time.
Window: 5 days. Most recent complete day: 2026-08-03. Peak heat output is the strongest single detection in the window, measured as fire radiative power in megawatts. Blank means no detection.
| Region | Status | Detections in window | Latest full day | Peak heat output (MW) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strait of Hormuz + Bandar Abbas approaches | Baseline building | 42 | 0 | 28.5 |
| Bab el-Mandeb / southern Red Sea chokepoint | Baseline building | 0 | 0 | - |
| Ryazan / Moscow refinery cluster | Baseline building | 40 | 3 | 9.8 |
| Volgograd (Lukoil) refinery | Baseline building | 16 | 0 | 10.0 |
| Kirishi refinery (Leningrad oblast) | Baseline building | 0 | 0 | - |
| Black Sea export terminals (Novorossiysk + Tuapse) | Baseline building | 21 | 4 | 7.2 |
| Taiwan Strait | Baseline building | 4 | 0 | 3.7 |
| Odesa port cluster (Odesa / Pivdennyi / Chornomorsk) | Baseline building | 1 | 0 | 2.5 |
Event odds
Prediction market odds
What real money is paying for a yes, on public event contracts. These are other people's prices, reproduced for context. They are not our estimates, not a recommendation, and thin markets can price badly.
Platforms reporting: Kalshi, Polymarket.
| Market question | Category | Probability | Platform | Resolves |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the maximum WTI front month settle price reach $115.01 by Dec 31, 2026? $115.01 or above | Energy | 34.4% | Kalshi | 2026-12-31 |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in August? | Energy | 3.5% | Polymarket | 2026-09-01 |
| Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 0bps at their September 2026 meeting? Fed maintains rate | Fed policy | 42.5% | Kalshi | 2026-09-16 |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | Fed policy | 1.4% | Polymarket | 2026-09-16 |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | Geopolitical | 21.5% | Polymarket | 2026-12-31 |
| Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before September 1, 2026? Before Sep 1, 2026 | Geopolitical | 8.5% | Kalshi | 2026-09-01 |
| Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal this year? Before Oct 1, 2026 | Geopolitical | 8.5% | Kalshi | 2026-10-01 |
| Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before August 15, 2026? Before Aug 15, 2026 | Geopolitical | 2.5% | Kalshi | 2026-08-18 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15? | Geopolitical | 2.2% | Polymarket | 2026-08-15 |
| Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 4.0% in July? Above 4.0% | Growth | 89.5% | Kalshi | 2026-08-07 |
| US recession by end of 2026? | Growth and recession | 8.5% | Polymarket | 2027-01-31 |
| Will there be a recession in 2026? Starts | Growth and recession | 6.5% | Kalshi | 2027-01-31 |
| Will annual inflation be 3.3% in July? | Inflation | 36.5% | Polymarket | 2026-08-12 |
| Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.4% for the year ending in July 2026? Above 3.4% | Inflation | 24.5% | Kalshi | 2026-08-12 |
| Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,350 Week of August 3 2026? | Other | 0.5% | Polymarket | 2026-08-07 |
How to read this board
A monitoring board. Levels are written down in advance, then checked against published data on a schedule. The page reports where each reading sits relative to its level.
That a reading crossed a line we set beforehand, so the underlying case gets re-examined. It is a prompt to go and look. It is not a prediction that anything will happen.
Toward the risk case means the reading is moving the way the monitored risk would move. Away from the risk case means it is moving against that risk. Both are reported: evidence that cuts against a concern is as publishable as evidence for it.
Setting the line before the data arrives is what stops a level being quietly moved after the fact to fit whatever happened.
No positions, no trades, no price targets, no advice. Nothing on this page is individualised to any reader.
Where a reading is missing, it renders as missing. Nothing on this page is estimated, backfilled or inferred to fill a hole.
Monitoring, not prediction. This page is general market commentary published to all readers on the same schedule, for information and education. It contains no individualised investment advice and no recommendation for any specific person. Markets carry risk; do your own research.
Data sources: US Treasury and Federal Reserve series for the rate and credit sensors, NASA FIRMS for thermal detections, Kalshi and Polymarket for event odds.